In the last two weeks, markets have grappled with mixed economic signals, from slower job growth and rising core inflation to a GDP revision that shows surprising resilience. Meanwhile, housing concerns, shifting consumer spending, and rapid innovation in technology and media continue to shape the broader landscape. Let’s dive in!
- Mortgage Rate Drop: The 30-year mortgage rate fell sharply to 6.29%, marking the biggest one-day drop in over a year. This decline may improve affordability, but high home prices and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on buyer demand.
- Gold and Silver Surge: Gold hit a record high and silver reached a 14-year peak as investor anxiety, rising bond yields, and expectations for Fed rate cuts fueled demand for safe-haven assets. Ongoing market volatility and global uncertainty continue to support the upward trend.
- Hiring Slowdown: August saw just 22,000 new jobs added, well below expectations, pointing to continued labor market softness. This weaker data increases the likelihood of a Fed rate cut later this month.
- Core Inflation Steady: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (Personal Consumption Expenditures) rose to 2.9% in July, in line with expectations and marking the highest annual rate since February. Consumer spending and income also increased, signaling resilience despite ongoing price pressures.
- GDP Revised Up: The U.S. economy grew at a 3.3% annual rate in Q2, higher than previously reported 3%. The data suggests stronger consumer demand and overall resilience in Q2 despite trade-related headwinds.
- Housing Emergency Considered: The Trump Administration is weighing a national emergency declaration to address the worsening housing affordability crisis. While details remain unclear, potential federal efforts could include reducing closing costs and encouraging new home construction.
- Holiday Spending Slowdown: Americans plan to cut holiday spending by 5% this year, the steepest drop since 2020, as high prices and tariffs weigh on consumer confidence. Gen Z is expected to reduce spending the most, with many shoppers seeking early discounts to stretch their budgets.
- AI Hiring Push: OpenAI is launching a job-matching platform to rival LinkedIn, using AI to connect businesses with talent and offer certifications in AI fluency. Backed by partners like Walmart, the platform aims to certify 10 million Americans by 2030 and expand access to AI-driven career opportunities.
- Hollywood’s Gaming Surge: Following massive hits like Super Mario Bros. and Minecraft, Hollywood is expanding its investment in gaming franchises to capture younger viewers and replace fading genres. With upcoming projects like Call of Duty and Zelda, the trend is expected to accelerate in the years ahead.
In the next two weeks, markets will focus on fresh inflation data and retail sales reports, key indicators that will guide expectations ahead of the Fed’s next policy meeting. Geopolitically, investors will watch developments in U.S.–China trade relations and Middle East stability, while attention in Washington turns to budget negotiations to avoid a potential government shutdown.
Footnotes
SFM Market Commentary: 9/12/25
In the last two weeks, markets have grappled with mixed economic signals, from slower job growth and rising core inflation to a GDP revision that shows surprising resilience. Meanwhile, housing concerns, shifting consumer spending, and rapid innovation in technology and media continue to shape the broader landscape. Let’s dive in!
In the next two weeks, markets will focus on fresh inflation data and retail sales reports, key indicators that will guide expectations ahead of the Fed’s next policy meeting. Geopolitically, investors will watch developments in U.S.–China trade relations and Middle East stability, while attention in Washington turns to budget negotiations to avoid a potential government shutdown.
Footnotes